China: The Big Financial Inclusion Frontier

Last week was a big one for those hoping to reach “full financial inclusion” by 2020. The President of the World Bank has signed on to the cause, and the Center for Financial Inclusion just rallied the troops in London at the Financial Inclusion 2020 Global Forum.

As with most really big global goals, success requires making strides in China. China is the last huge, untapped market for microfinance, but there are signs that that’s changing. The focus of microfinance in China is on credit, and the numbers of providers has been growing fast, with a big jump since 2010. At the end of 2010, the China Association of Microfinance had 2,614 formal members in 31 provinces and cities. The early members were mainly public-interest microfinance institutions focused on poverty reduction . . . 

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Week of November 8, 2013

This week’s New and Noteworthy highlights new research and findings on ways to encourage savings, measures of poverty in America, and a discussion of financial capability.

  • Some of the mobile apps promoting saving behaviors profiled in this American Banker article could possibly address savings challenges highlighted by FAI’s Julie Siwicki earlier this week.
  • In more savings-related news, FAI co-founder Dean Karlan together with colleagues at CGDEV released a working paper reviewing researching on savings groups and constraints that may hinder the adoption and effective usage of savings products and services by the poor. The SEEP network also released a research review of savings groups, focusing on seven specific RCTs from various countries.
  • In separate but equally compelling reports, Lisa Servon, a professor at The New School and NPR’s Pam Fessler take an investigative, first-hand look “under the hood” of the payday loan industry.
  • Perhaps the most common application of insights from behavioral economics is using defaults – for instance, automatically enrolling people in savings programs unless they opt out. While such defaults may help nudge many people toward savings, those who are motivated enough to opt-out are most likely the people who need help the most. CFED discusses the use of behavioral economic approaches in asset building and points to the need for more nuanced understanding of participants’ motivation and psychology when designing nudges.
  • Nearly 40 percent of Americans between the ages of 25 and 60 will experience at least one year below the official poverty line and 54 percent will spend a year in poverty or near poverty, making poverty a mainstream occurrence, according to Mark Rank of the University of Washington.
  • At FAI, we’ve written a lot about initiatives focused on the ultra-poor like BRAC’s graduation program. Trickle Up outlined why focusing on this subgroup of the BoP is important for development practitioners.
  • While NPR added to the call for new ways to measure poverty in America, The Washington Post featured a report from the United Way of Northern New Jersey that warns of a hidden new economic class – Asset Limited, Income Constrained and Employed (ALICE).  ALICE individuals live tenuously at the lower end of the middle class and while they are characterized by financial insecurity, they are often not poor enough to qualify for social safety nets.

A Roundup of Recent and Ongoing Mobile Money Research in Economics

A growing body of research on mobile money has a lot to say about its potential to smooth risks and facilitate transfer programs, but a definitive experimental study on what it means for the financial lives of the poor remains undone – a gap we would like to fill with our future work at the Financial Access Initiative.

In recent years, mobile technologies have rapidly expanded in the developing world, bringing information and other transformative services with them to the previously isolated and the poor (Aker and Mbiti, 2010; Aker, 2010; Jensen, 2007).  Rapidly adopted in most developing country contexts, mobile technologies have the potential to serve as a broad-distribution platform for other services and products.  For example, a growing literature looks at the potential for mobile technologies to serve as a vehicle for the delivery of information and reminders in a variety of contexts, including for loan repayment and health . . . 

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Sorry, Cash Only

In the grand tradition of Morgan Spurlock’s Super Size Me, I’ve decided to do a 30 day experiment. I’m putting away the plastic, denying my debit card, and avoiding the ATM. I’m going unbanked for a month.

In work at FAI, I am constantly reading research on increasing financial inclusion. Recently, I read The Fletcher School’s Cost of Cash report that said it is more expensive for low-income, unbanked populations to use cash but paradoxically, they rely on cash the most! This (and many other influences including Lisa Servon’s recent investigative work on cash checking services) got me thinking. What would my life be like if I couldn’t use any of my banking services? What is it like to operate purely in cash, especially in a hyper-connected, fast-paced city like New York? I hope to gain some insight into those questions and others over the next month . . . 

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Under-savers Anonymous: A US Chapter?

As a field researcher collecting data for the US Financial Diaries project in Cincinnati, I interviewed 30 low-income families about the details of their household finances over 16 months. One question was always in my mind: What’s the difference between their financial lives and mine? And how might this comparison help design financial products for people who are struggling to make ends meet? One of the most important distinctions I identified was our vastly different abilities to save. For me, an unexpected $300 car repair might be a pain in the butt, sure – but I’m able to deal with it by dipping into my savings account. For USFD families, that same bill could throw the household into a mire of debt, stress, and embarrassment (not to mention lack of transportation).

My experience in the field lines up with data on the dismal savings rate in the US compared to other parts of the world. It speaks to the difficulty of putting aside money when very little is coming into a household in the first place, and it highlights the dearth of financial products offering effective carrots or sticks to boost Americans’ savings . . . 

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The Urban/Rural Divide is Less Divided Than You Think

In his recently published paper, “Accounting for the Poor,” MIT Economist Robert Townsend uses an impressive dataset to make the case for “accounting” for the economic contributions of the poor. Most interesting to me is how he analyzes this data to show the lifecycle and consumption needs of both the rural and urban poor – and shows that urban and rural lives are more intertwined than I had assumed . . . 

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Week of November 1, 2013

This week is one of big announcements - the latest research on unconditional cash transfers made a splash in the media, the World Bank released its annual Doing Business report, and I am launching my month-long Sorry, Cash Only project. I encourage our readers to follow my adventures of a peek into a cash-only economy on TumblrTwitterInstagram, and Facebook.

  • IPA released a policy brief showing initial (encouraging) results of its evaluation of Give Directly’s cash transfer program in Kenya. While many bloggers and news outlets covered the announcement, this piece from The Economist offers a succinct look at the CCT/UCT debate. and
  • FAI affiliate Ignacio Mas offers a borderline sci-fi blog post as he speculates whether cash will disappear or we will move to a world of “smart notes.”
  • Recently, the book Scarcity provided a deep dive into the impact of poverty on the way we think and act. New research is building on those ideas and shows that poverty can cause long-lasting changes in the structure of our brains.
  • Ukraine is the most improved economy and Singapore is the easiest place to conduct business according to the World Bank, which released its annual Doing Business report on entrepreneurship and regulations.
  • Over at the Why Nations Fail blog, Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson take a different view on Karlan, et al.’s paper on the economic returns of cows in rural India, looking at the phenomenon through a social and institutional (rather than purely economic) lens.
  • CGAP reveals the practicalities of implementing mobile payments through the story of Mushtaque, a rickshaw driver in Bangladesh, and his challenges in using mobile wallet products.
  • The New York City Housing Authority announced it will provide bank kiosks that look like ATMs to allow unbanked residents more convenient locations to make rent and bill payments.

"Microcredit for Americans" - Is it all about the Score?

Buried at the bottom of Shaila Dewan's recent New York Times article on "Microcredit for Americans" is an idea that deserves much more attention:

Grameen helps its clients in another way that many experts say is more important than increasing income — it establishes good credit scores. Many poverty alleviation groups have shifted their focus from saving to credit building, because people with poor or no credit must leave large deposits for basic needs like utilities, have trouble renting decent housing, pay much higher interest rates and have a harder time finding jobs.

Nayrobi Gonzalez de Quiroz, 26, recently received her first Grameen loan but decided not to follow through with her plan to buy handbags for resale. After using about $200 to pay off a debt, she said, she decided it was safer to leave the money in the bank and make the payments from her earnings as a manicurist.

“Here, you have to have good credit,” she said. “I have a young son and I have to think about his future.

The choice by Nayrobi Gonzalez de Quiroz to not put her money in a business is familiar from other studies of how people use microcredit around the world, so it's not surprising to see it in the U.S. The more surprising idea is that microcredit may matter not because of anything having to do with any given loan and the possible returns on investment. The path of impact could run through impacts on credit scores. This is a phenomenon that is particular to the U.S. and other places where credit scores are part of the backbone of retail banking. One impact comes through the way that a better credit score makes access to banks easier, but credit scores are also used by employers in making hiring decisions, and landlords in making housing decisions. Having a better credit score is a big deal . . . 

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Week of October 25, 2013

This week’s New and Noteworthy takes a big picture approach to microfinance regulation, behavioral economics the social enterprise sector, and academic research – asking what are the big challenges and how might we go about addressing them.

  • FAI co-founder Sendhil Mullainathan and co-authors have a new short paper sub-titled “What Behavioral Economics is Not” , which is a good a description of this very useful attempt to clarify an often mis-used or misunderstood term. Highly recommended.
  • On a related note, illustrating the need for Sendhil’s piece are these two posts (firstsecond) from Alex Tabarrok on Marginal Revolution about the layaway system. Be sure to read the comments as they illustrate the ongoing arguments over the policy implications of behavioral economics and it’s interaction with traditional economic analysis.
  • Hannah Schiff of Value for Women writes a compelling post on why there is no such thing as gender-neutral financial services. She makes the point that banks should not bias services toward women but start removing the current bias toward men.
  • Are we all on the same page when it comes to defining financial inclusion and microfinance? Grzegorz Galusek of the Microfinance Centre reviews some of the prominent definitions of these terms and the trend to conflate the two.
  • The world of social entrepreneurs and social investing are full of small scale “development darlings” that get a lot of media attention but are they able to ever be profitable? Is that even a realistic expectation? Devex takes a deep dive on profitability in the social enterprise space.
  • The Kenya Commercial Bank announced a new product that allows users to open a KCB account directly from their mobile phones.
  • Like every major movement, Ignacio Mas contends that the mobile banking push has foundation myths. He takes a look back at these (agent banking in Brazil and Smart Communications’ mobile money service in the Philippines) to separate fact from fiction.
     
  • Eleven microfinance experts recently weighed in on whether smarter regulation can restore faith in microfinance for a Guardian live chat session.
  • From problems with the peer-review process, to the impacts of “publish or perish” on research,  this Economist piece exposes flaws in the academic research system and suggests ways to bring science back to its core principles.

  • A recent Chicago Tribune article explores various models and approaches to bringing needed services to underserved communities, including financial services. In addition to Kiva, the piece highlights the Magic Johnson prepaid debit card. (n.b. To avoid logging into or creating a Chicago Tribune account to read the article, click here and select the first time in the Google search results titled "Serving the Underserved: Marketing to Make a Difference.")

     

Designing for or designing with the poor?

As microfinance expands beyond loans to include products like microinsurance and commitment saving accounts, study after study show that simply offering something new is not enough to expand financial inclusion –the design of the product matters.  But how do financial institutions and practitioners start the process of creating products that are both profitable and meet the needs of the poor?

One method is human-centered design (HCD). HCD and “design thinking” were made famous by Ideo, the international design firm responsible for Apple’s first mouse. Ideo defines HDC as a “process [that] begins by examining the needs, dreams, and behaviors of the people we want to affect with our solutions.” These solutions emerge at the intersection of what people desire, is technologically feasible, and financially viable. The process has three main phases – researching, creating prototypes, and testing those prototypes (and possibly revising them based on user feedback). . . 

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U.S. Financial Diaries: Webinar with Leading Experts

The U.S. Financial Diaries is a research project tracking more than 200 low- and moderate-income households over the course of a year, collecting highly detailed data on household financial activity. New York University’s Financial Access Initiative(FAI), CFSI, and Bankable Frontier Associates (BFA) recently released the Household Profiles. This series provides an intimate look into the financial lives of six households, exploring the ways these families are making ends meet . . . 

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Week of October 18, 2013

This week we explore whether technology is really a development silver bullet, if banks are too costly to absorb the unbanked, and two very different innovations in financial services in San Francisco.

  • As the movement to bank the unbanked grows, Lisa Servon reminds us that the costs of “formal” banking services are often even higher than the costs of checkcashers and other non-traditional services.
  • University of Chicago social scientist Harold Pollack takes “rules of thumb” to a whole new level, claiming that all the financial advice you’ll ever need can fit on a 4x6 index card.
  • San Francisco-based Mission Asset Fund brings documentation and guarantee services to the traditional lending circle model to help Latino residents build credit. A recent profile on NPR’s Marketplace highlights the hybrid formal-informal approach to financial services.
  • After you pay for your sandwich with your phone, you might be able to walk next door to the drug store and do all of your banking – Walgreens announced it will begin providing financial services at 8,541 locations.

Payments from Domestic Migrants Dwarf International Remittances

Despite a lot of excitement about global payments, we are just beginning to learn the most basic facts about them– how much money is sent by whom, to whom, where, and how.  International remittances flows could reach $515 billion by the year 2015 and are slowly starting to receive the attention they deserve from policymakers.  Now, a new set of Gates reports on payments in Africa and Asia shows that domestic remittances may far surpass international remittances in frequency and magnitude . . . 

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Week of October 11, 2013

This week’s New and Noteworthy includes continued discussion on some of the issues we’ve been blogging about like how to best deliver financial literacy, the benefits of cash transfers, and reasons why digital payments sometimes have low take-up rates.

  • It seems we weren’t the only ones mulling over financial literacy last week. Richard H. Thaler, an economics professor at the Booth School, weighs in on the topic and the idea of “just in time” financial education for The New York Times.
  • Earlier this week, FAI’s Tim Odgen asked why people aren’t paying with mobile money. It’s a question that is also on the minds of mobile payment operators in India as take-up of digital payment systems has been slow. Even in the US, some feel that the existing comfort with banking systems poses a challenge for a larger digital monetary system as highlighted in The New Yorker.
     
  • In the debate on who should be on the front lines of digital payments – mobile operators or banks, GSMA argues that both are necessary for “cooperative competition,” which best serves customers.
  • In the absence of government investment and formal banking, one area in China has developed a complex network of informal “shadow banks” to support SMEs.
     
  • As cash transfers for the poor continues to gain traction as a development intervention,  GiveDirectly’s founder Paul Niehaus highlights their efficiency for NGOs and Aid Thoughts reminds us that while valuable, they cannot replace public goods.
     
  • IPA reviews conversations around financial inclusion at the recent “Toward the Better Banked” event in New York.  One fundamental question explored by participants was - Should our goal be "banking the underbanked" into our current system, or should we be focused on transforming the system itself?
  • And now for something completely different…David Roodman has a compelling blog post this week on why making the process in developing working papers (specifically those in the social sciences) more transparent is better for researchers everywhere.

Fighting Poverty, Profitably: A New Report on Payment Systems

A recent report of the Gates Foundation, from their program on Financial Services for the Poor, highlights payment systems as a way of “Fighting Poverty, Profitably” – as the report says in its title.  Payment systems, according to the report, “could serve as the connective tissue for bringing a broader array of financial services to the poor”.

The report brings together the existing data on payment systems to analyze how potential payments service providers could profitably extend their services to underserved populations in developing countries.  They identify four cost and revenue centers – accounts, cash-in-cash-out, transfers, and what they term “adjacencies” – in their framework, and argue for revenue models built on three of the four (cash-in-cash-out, transfers, and adjacencies) to best give companies an incentive to serve the poor.

In countries that have already embraced mobile payment systems, such as Kenya, some of the most exciting action is occurring in adjacencies . . . 

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A New Agenda on Remittances, Payments, and Development: 12 Better Research Questions

Migrants send a lot of money to developing countries—several times more than foreign aid. Researchers and policymakers have seized on these very large flows and built an agenda to understand how these remittances can foster development. Indeed, you most often hear remittance flows compared to aid flows.

Something fundamental is wrong with this agenda however. Researchers tend to study remittances as if they were windfall income, like aid or oil revenue, that arrives like manna from heaven. This leads researchers toward the kind of questions you might ask about windfall income: Are remittances spent on ‘good’ things like investment and education? Do families and countries become ‘dependent’ on remittances?

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Why Aren't Users Paying with Mobile Money?

On the Center for Financial Inclusion blog, Ignacio Mas and Beth Rhyne are discussing a central question in the evolution of electronic payments in developing countries: why aren't people using it to pay? Even in countries like Kenya with very high rates of adoption of a electronic payment platform, the vast majority of money that goes into the system come back out into physical cash in 24 to 48 hours. Ignacio makes a case that electronic payments systems need to be more integrated into other financial behaviors, like savings and credit, before they will be used for routine payments. The reason is fairly simple: unless you are storing value in the electronic system (as with a savings account) using the electronic system for a payment involves at least one extra step to turn cash into electronic form.

Beth responds that if people are receiving their income in electronic form in the first place, like benefits payments or paychecks, and the merchants they frequent take payment in electronic form then there is good reason for users to keep their money in the electronic system. Using Ignacio's same logic, cashing out involves an extra step if the inflow is electronic and the outflow can be electronic. Beth's argument is one of the reasons organizations like the Better than Cash Alliance are focused on encouraging governments to use electronic payments to pay salaries or benefits to households . . . 

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Week of October 4, 2013

This week’s New and Noteworthy includes thoughts on both the transformative potential of digital banking as well as a defense of preventing a cashless economy. Also in our highlights are innovative uses for prepaid debit cards and research using mobile phone minutes as a proxy for income inequality.

  • Earlier this week the Affordable Care Act officially went into effect. However, millions of uninsured Americans will still be left out of expanded coverage.
  • As mobile banking becomes more ubiquitous and some predict cash’s demise, Oliver Burkeman reminds us that the “frictionless” cashless economy is not necessarily in our best interests. 
  • As Myanmar emerges from decades-long conflict, it’s reopening its borders to foreign banks. The Economist explores how the nascent mobile and financial sectors have the “leap-frogging” potential to transform the financial services sector.
  • FAI affiliate Ignacio Mas provides a deep dive into retail payments in the developing world and the challenges in bringing services to scale.
  • The Atlantic highlighted a new study from Gutierrez, et al. that uses mobile phone communications and airtime credit purchases to map income inequality in Côte d'Ivoire.
  • The talking points around prepaid debit cards usually involve mention of their high fees or alternatives to formal bank accounts. But Money Talk News takes a more positive spin offering seven innovative and practical uses for the products.
  • Nancy Lee, General Manager of the Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF) at the Inter-American Development Bank Group, wrote the first in CGAP’s new blog series on gender and the role of finance. Lee’s insights focus on women entrepreneurs and their financial needs, which extend well beyond credit.