1. Universal Basic Income (unpopular locale edition): In 2010, to replace massive energy and food subsidies, the Iranian government apparently implemented a cash transfer program that began covering over 95% of the population (75 million people) before targeting seems to have lowered coverage to less than 35 million. The story in two sentences: “In 2011, the first full year of the program, transfers amounted to 6.5% of the GDP and about 29% of the median household income. After three years of inflation, the amount transferred per person is down to less than 3% of GDP per capita.” New research finds minimal effects on labor supply or hours worked, though the short time horizon for the large transfers makes it hard to generalize. I suspect that the short time horizon is only part of the reason this policy hasn’t gotten more attention.
2. Our AI Overlords: Another AI benchmark falls. In a much-publicized practice event Sunday, an AI system developed by OpenAI beat a team of former pros at a mutliplayer video game called Dota (they had a livestream and posted a video that is totally inscrutable to me). This was expected given the rapidly-growing computation devoted to experiments like this, though it looks like the training required by this model (190 “petaflop/s-days,” whatever those are) was less than would be expected from extrapolating past large experiments. (The costs for those experiments are also growing by an order of magnitude every year and a half, which seems… unsustainable.) Apparently OpenAI are planning a Dota match against current pros later this month, so expect to hear more about this.
3. Cryptocurrency (or Weird Household Finance): Apparently “proxies for investor attention strongly forecast cryptocurrency returns,” which seems… a little obvious? And Matt Levine discovers a subculture of people who intentionally participate in pump and dump schemes in marginal cryptocurrencies as a form of gambling, which raises the question - what do the other people investing in marginal cryptocurrencies think they are doing?