Viewing all posts with tag: Development Economics  

Week of March 23, 2020

Editor’s Note: What a difference a month makes. I've started drafting a new edition of the faiV several times over the last six weeks, but events kept overwhelming the moment and I put it off again. Now it seems that events have overwhelmed everything. And so, here is a special edition of the faiV with few links and only two thoughts around one central theme: the existential crisis for microfinance globally.

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Week of January 31, 2020

1. Financial Inclusion/Household Financial Security: It seems strange that I so infrequently have items specifically on microfinance so I leap at the chance when it comes along, particularly when that chance involves one of my soapboxes. For instance: the product is what the users make of it, not what the institution wants it to be. For instance, most microcredit loans aren't investment loans, they're liquidity management tools. Which, of course, makes sense since liquidity management is a more pressing need and the structure of the basic microcredit loan is so ill-suited to business investment. But there are ways to make the standard microcredit loan structure more workable for investment purposes. For instance, borrowers from the largest MFI in China form bogus groups and then funnel all of the loans to a single member to make a larger investment. It's not a niche phenomena either: the authors estimate that 73% of groups are doing this.
Another of my soapboxes is the history of development of financial institutions that serve excluded populations, and where the modern microfinance movement fits in that history. There's a new paper from Marvin Suesse and Nikolaus Wolf on the development rural credit cooperatives in Prussia between 1852 and 1913 (I did say this was a pet interest). And here's a summary version in VoxEU. If that doesn't sound like the kind of thing you would normally click on, I beg you to reconsider. It's an interesting story about what drove the creation of a new kind of financial services institution in a setting that makes it a bit easier to disentangle causes and effects, and what effect these new institutions had on their communities. I won't spoil the ending but would encourage you to think about how their results would look if measured with an individual-focused impact evaluation.
I will spoil the beginning, though: the formation of credit cooperatives was driven by changes in the economy that increased the need for access to credit. Which brings me to a third soapbox, the Great Convergence (and there's more on that below). Here's a new report from the New York Fed on constrained access to credit in the United States, including a "Credit Insecurity Index." The premise is that access to credit is important for households to manage liquidity, manage investment and manage risk (those are my terms, theirs are "manage emergencies, take advantage of opportunities, or invest"), but that access varies geographically for lots of different reasons. The report tracks 5 tiers of credit access and changes in those tiers over time, by county. There are 11 states where more than 10% of the population lives in credit-insecure counties. It's another way to illustrate how much in common parts of the US, geographically and demographically, have in common with middle-income countries. Speaking of, I'd love to see a similar exercise done in other countries.
Finally, and keeping with the Great Convergence sub-theme, here's a new paper from Jonathan Fu looking at representative data from six "emerging economies" and five "developed economies" to look at "contextual-level" predictors of financial well-being. He finds that more sources of independent information, more competition, and specifically more competition from informal and semi-formal providers helps, and that simple access and financial literacy don't (hey, another soapbox!).   

2. Digital Finance: Writing about digital finance is frequently tough because the line between what is "finance" and what is "digital finance" isn't all that clear much of the time. Thirty years ago most credit card transactions were digital (the information was passed over phone lines from modem-to-modem!) but we don't tend to think of that as "digital finance." Another of my soapboxes is that often the "digital" in "digital finance" is used as a justification to pretend the rules of finance don't apply. Here's a useful review in an unusual outlet (Computer) on the "technical potential versus practical reality" of digital finance, specifically blockchain and crypto, for low-income people. It cites some examples I was unaware of and presents the arguments for the benefits pretty clearly. But the best reason to read it is the Challenges section features a heading you almost never see from pieces that emerge from the digital side of digital finance: "Low-income groups' limited power and financial/social capital." Another thing I really like is it draws a distinction between FinTechs and TechFins, the latter being tech firms dabbling in finance.
The Economist has a piece this week on that issue specifically: "how digital financial services can prey upon the poor" with a specific focus on the potential for abuse of data gathered on poor customers who have little understanding of what is being gathered by whom or the consequences (to be fair, none of us do). To the point about the blurred line between finance and digital finance, there's not much there that hasn't been true of non-digital finance for a very long time.
The Economist piece relies heavily on CGAPs long-standing attention to these issues, and Matthew Soursourian and Ariadne Plaitakis have more to add in a look at how digital finance may require changes to competition policy in financial services, specifically as TechFins play a larger role. Oh look, they specifically call out issues of political power!
In their case it's the political power that the market power of TechFins brings, but it's not just the political power of corporations that becomes worrisome in digital finance. The political power of governments is even more concerning to the extent that it enables even more channels for surveillance, oppression and exclusion. Here's a story about Kenya's digital ID initiative that is excluding many marginalized groups from getting the IDs that will soon be necessary for many aspects of life including access to the financial system. But even those people who are included may end up excluded because the government lacks the tools and expertise to protect the very sensitive data that goes into the biometric IDs.

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Week of January 10, 2020

1. Looking Ahead: I've been pretty haphazard in announcing some important new things at FAI that are going to affect the faiV, in part directly and in part because they drive how I spend my time and what I pay attention to. First, we've received a three year grant from the Mastercard Impact Fund in collaboration with the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth to focus on Household Financial Security and on Small and Medium Enterprises. We'll be doing some original research internationally and in the US that I'm pretty excited about. But I'm most excited about two aspects of the new grant: 1) It allows us to think about issues globally without silos about developing countries or developed countries, US or non-US (and if you read the faiV regularly you know taking that perspective is one of my soapboxes, see Great Convergence below), and 2) an explicit part of our goals is to better connect research, policy and practice through what we're calling "learning communities" (and being at the nexus of research, policy and practice has always been our goal for FAI, and I where I think our greatest value lies). If you're focused on one of those topics and would like to be part of a learning community, please do reach out.
At FAI, we've also recently received support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to follow-up on and replicate research on facilitating urban-to-rural digital remittances in South Asia. The original study, in Bangladesh, found that encouraging migrants from rural villages to Dhaka to use mobile money for remittances to their home village had substantial positive impacts on consumption and savings for both senders and receivers. We'll be following up with the subjects of the original study and trying to determine to what extent similar gains are possible in other locations. It hits squarely on some important but neglected questions on migration as a household financial security strategy.
The Gates Foundation is also supporting the faiV directly, specifically to help us increase coverage from developing country researchers and other under-represented minorities, and to expand readership outside of the US/UK. In that regard, I'd definitely like your help in 2020. Would you recommend the faiV to colleagues in other countries? And when you see research from those outside the existing development economics industrial complex that deserves more attention, please do send it my way.

2. Looking Back/In Memoriam: We start the 2020s without one of the most important and influential individuals in the modern fight against extreme poverty: Sir Fasle Abed, founder of BRAC. When I do think about it, I'm flummoxed that Sir Abed was not much, much more famous than he is. He seems to fit in a category with, say, Norman Borlaug--people who profoundly changed the lives of countless people living in extreme poverty but who is nearly anonymous. Although perhaps the better analogs for Sir Abed are Sakichi and Kiichiro Toyoda, the father and son who founded Toyota and laid the groundwork for what is now known as lean manufacturing. Unlike Borlaug whose work is easier to tie directly to millions of people avoiding starvation, the Toyodas created an institution that fundamentally changed an industry (and perceptions of an entire country), and is for all intents and purposes universally respected as a key leader and innovator in its field.
BRAC is not only arguably the largest NGO in the world, but it's deep commitment to research and innovation is as unique and path-breaking as Toyota's has been to eliminating waste and improving quality. BRAC is probably most known for pioneering and documenting Oral Rehydration Therapy, and for inventing the "graduation"/Targeting the Ultra-Poor program, and for being one of the largest microfinance institutions in the world. But there are innumerable other rigorous research collaborations. Here are just a few papers from the last year based on collaborations with BRAC: 1) a women's empowerment program in Uganda, and a similar program in Sierra Leone, 2) a community health promoter program, 3) delivering microcredit to women in a mobile money account that they individually own, and 4) agricultural extension and malaria reduction. Honestly, is there any organization in the world that can compete with a publication record like that? Are there any other NGOs that have started their own universities?
But the thing that is most impressive to me about Sir Abed is that there is little doubt that BRAC will continue as it has without him. That is the ultimate mark of long-term impact. If you'd like to part of that, BRAC is hiring researchers.

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