A Terrific Reference—or Primer—on Microinsurance Take-up

Take-up of formal microinsurance products remain low around the world, typically ranging from 0 to 30-40 percent depending on the type of product and the conditions of the offer. A growing literature is testing various determinants of take-up, although little has been done to step back and consider what we have learned as a whole.

That’s a problem because the issues are complicated and multi-layered. There’s a high probability of being misled by any particular finding from the research when designing new products.

Michal Matul, Aparna Dalal, Ombeline De Bock and Wouter Gelade have done a huge service to the sector, then, in a new paper presented at the Third European Research Conference on Microfinance, held June 10-12 in Norway. Their paper is a must-read for anybody interested in microinsurance, particularly in understanding and overcoming the puzzle of low take-up for both first sales and renewals of purchases. The latter has been little considered, yet renewal rates tend to be even lower than first-sale rates . . . 

Read More

Informal Insurance, Basis Risk and the Demand for Microinsurance

The literature on microinsurance is growing. A series of studies have been published in recent years that look at determinants of (generally low) take-up of microinsurance products, particularly index insurance products. Some work is also being done looking at the impact of offering insurance to farmers.

At the Third European conference on microfinance, held June 10-12 in Norway, Mark Rosenzweig shared some interesting results on the take-up of rainfall microinsurance in India, and its impact on risk-taking. He particularly addresses two important determinants of take-up and impact that have so far received limited attention: basis risk (that is, the risk for a client that the insurance may not pay out when he or she experiences an actual loss due to the possible difference in rainfall at the weather station and on his or her plot), and the complementarity of formal microinsurance with informal insurance mechanisms . . . 

Read More

New Research from the American Economic Review

The American Economic Association (AEA) recently released the Papers and Proceedings issue of its journal American Economic Review, which presents selected papers from the AEA's annual meeting. The AER is one of the premier economics journals and has very broad coverage. For instance, you can learn everything you never knew you wanted to know about income and church attendance in nineteenth century Prussia. Happily, this volume also includes a number of papers relating to mobile money, credit, savings, and insurance.

Mobile Money

In their study, William Jack, Adam Ray, and Tavneet Suri investigate how households using M-PESA interact with and exploit their informal networks when making transactions. The authors find M-PESA users have more remittance activity, make transfers over distances greater than 100 km, and have more reciprocal transactions than non-users.

While Jack et al. looked at volume of transactions, David Weil and Isaac Mbiti used aggregate data in their research on the velocity of mobile money. One of the more intriguing findings is that withdrawals are made frequently and in small amounts, even though users can reduce fees if they group withdrawals. As the use of mobile money grows in other countries (M-PESA recently launched in India, for instance) it will be interesting to see how similar these (and previous) findings are in different cultural contexts.

Gender and Finance

Using data from over 30,000 firms in 90 developing countries, Elizabeth Asiedu, Isaac Kalonda-Kanyama, Leonce Ndikumana, and Akwasi Nti-Adde analyze whether gender is a determinant in financing constraints and access to credit for firms. They find that indeed, female-owned firms are more likely to be financially constrained than male-owned counterparts but only in the sub-Saharan African region. There is no gender gap in other regions but small firms are more likely to be financially constrained than larger firms, and foreign-owned firms are less likely to be constrained than domestically owned firms.

Moving from the macro to the micro level, Carolina Castilla and Thomas Walker investigate gendered dynamics of intra-household financial decisions in their paper. In a field experiment in Southern Ghana, researchers conducted public and private lotteries with cash and in-kind prizes to observe the effects of these windfalls on household allocations. They found “husbands' public windfalls increase investment in assets and social capital, while there is no such effect when wives win. Private windfalls of both spouses are committed to cash (wives) or in-kind gifts (husband) which are either difficult to monitor or to reverse if discovered by the other spouse.”

Risk

We return to Kenya with Michael Kremer, Jean Lee, Jonathan Robinson, and Olga Rostapshova in their study on behavioral biases and firm behavior. Among a sample of Kenyan shopkeepers, those with lower math skills were less accepting of small-scale risk and were also less likely to have larger inventories than those with higher scores. There are some interesting observations in the paper on the connection between loss aversion and microfinance, suggesting that small business owners are less likely to access microcredit if risk averse and social safety nets could possibly help increase investment in these enterprises.

Similarly, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak and Mark R. Rosenzweig look at risk in the context of the Indian insurance market, specifically rainfall insurance. Their findings show that when insured farmers took greater risks, wage levels increased but so did the volatility of labor demand, creating a threat to landless workers. When offered the choice, landless workers also purchased insurance when contracts were offered to farmers.

Savings

Lastly, Suresh de Mel, Craig McIntosh, and Christopher Woodruff report the findings of their field experiment in rural Sri Lanka that tested the efficacy of various methods of collecting deposits in formal bank accounts. Although their research shows frequent, face-to-face collection increases aggregate household savings, collections using community lock boxes affected the number of transactions but not the overall level of savings.

How the Poor are Saving for Change

Last month Oxfam America, Freedom from Hunger, and the Strømme Foundation released the results of a three year in-depth study evaluating their joint Savings for Change (SfC) program in Mali. The study, implemented by IPA and the Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology at the University of Arizona, combined an RCT and ethnographic research techniques over a period of three years resulting in arguably the broadest and deepest rigorous evaluation of a savings program we have.

SfC currently operates in 13 countries in West Africa, Latin America, and Asia but the program in Mali is one of the largest. Since 2005, women in the program have formed small groups that meet regularly and require members to contribute to a joint savings fund. Members then take out loans from the pot at an agreed upon interest rate. At a predetermined annual date, the fund is divided among members and returns can be anywhere from 30-40% or higher. The timing of the payout usually coincides with planting season, festivals, or other periods when there is a greater need for increased cash flow. For this study, researchers randomly selected villages to receive the SfC program from a pool of 500. They also conducted ethnographic case studies and the quantitative data necessary for the impact evaluation . . . 

Read More

Rigorous Evaluation: Not an Afterthought

There's a new piece in Foreign Policy magazine which takes a tough look at Jeff Sachs and the Millenium Villages Project--not in regard to results or interventions, but in regard to evaluation. The project was always pitched as a demonstration of a "different" approach to ending poverty that could provide a blueprint for addressing poverty globally. 

As the piece explains--citing FAI's founder Jonathan Morduch, FAI Affiliate Michael Clemens, Ted Miguel from UC-Berkeley and Nancy Birdsall from CGD, among others--that is no longer a realistic option. The project wasn't structured to allow for the kind of rigorous evaluation that would give it credibility as a demonstration or a justification for scale-up. While it seems there is now an effort to do more rigorous evaluation, for most aspects of the project it is simply too late to establish the comparisons and baselines necessary for credible claims of impact . . . 

Read More

Vulnerability: The 2013 Microcredit Summit Campaign Report

In 2011, microfinance providers reached fewer total people than they did in 2010, as well as fewer people living in extreme poverty, according to the 2013 State of the Campaign Report, which is released annually by the Microcredit Summit Campaign. Entitled “Vulnerability,” the report presents some stark findings. This is the first time the number of microfinance clients has decreased since the Campaign began its conducting research on the industry in 1998. This overall decrease occurred despite an expansion of 1.4 million more clients in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of this reduction occurred in India, and was in part due to the microfinance crisis that began in Andhra Pradesh in late 2010.

There are a number of reasons for the slowdown. Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are more likely to go to markets that have already proven to be successful. Reaching poorer and more remote clients is generally more difficult and costly for organizations. Additionally, data limitations make it hard to know when local markets are saturated. Maturing markets, the global economic crisis, investor wariness, and donor fatigue also contributed to the slowdown . . . 

Read More

The Death and Life of Cash

Cash is all the rage in development circles right now—whether it’s trying to drastically reduce the use of cash by the poor or drastically increase the use of cash by development agencies (both public and private). There isn’t an actual conflict here. In the first case, the idea is to reduce the use of the physical artifact of cash; the latter is all about increasing the direct transfer of money to the poor. So the two efforts are actually complementary: reducing the use of physical cash makes transferring money cheaper and more feasible.

The cost and risk of transporting, transferring and tracking physical cash has always been one of the major objections to cash transfer programs. Another is the idea that poor households won’t use cash well. At various times and places you can find someone arguing that the poor lack the training, education, sophistication, access to quality goods and services, impulse control, security, or moral sensibility to make cash transfers a good use of funds.

That position has always had little evidence on its side . . . 

Read More

The Other Half of the Benefit-Cost Debate

When it comes to costs and benefits, we at FAI tend to focus on benefits. The recent release of the Compartamos microfinance impact evaluation was thus a big event in our office. With our heads in the academic literature, we tend to write a lot about RCTs and other ways to measure benefits of interventions.

We’re contributing to a problem, though. There’s a big danger in conflating impact and value. We can’t say much about  the value of microfinance (or any other intervention) based on benefits alone. The most realistic proposition in favor of microfinance is that relatively small benefits are paired with relatively small costs, leading to a favorable cost-benefit ratio. That’s a hypothesis, of course, and it hinges on a careful reckoning of the cost data.

Read More

Saving Chiapas, Saving Ourselves: How to avoid a repayment crisis in Mexico

My last two posts on the potential repayment crisis in Chiapas described the high risk of a crisis in Chiapas, Mexico, and its potentially devastating consequences to the microfinance sector around the world. But here is the good news: thus far there is no crisis, and one could still be avoided. 

I have argued before that development finance institutions and other funders could leverage Smart Certification to enforce client protection practices and thus reduce the risk of the kind of over-lending that's happening in Chiapas. However, that prescription alone would not work in Mexico, mainly because a large number of Mexican MFIs are independent of foreign funding, and there are many other lenders active in the same space, including consumer finance companies and large retailers that provide credit.

The answer to avoiding a repayment crisis in Mexico will thus require government action . . . 

Read More

The Socio-Cultural Dimension of Microcredit

Much of the dialogue around microfinance suggests that the poor are universally credit constrained and that cash shortages drive a monolithic demand for credit. As such, microfinance is often treated as a technical, rational and linear process that is characterized by an “if-you-build-it-they-will-come” mindset. Too often overlooked are the contextually specific and nuanced processes that influence consumers’ demand for microcredit in a variety of social, moral, cultural, and political contexts.

A fascinating new paper, “Explaining Participation and Repayment in Microcredit Schemes in Rural Morocco: the Role of Social Norms and Actors,” from the Institute of Research for Development at the Sorbonne University explores exactly these dimensions of microfinance. Drawing upon evidence collected from rural Morocco, the team of authors explores the socio-cultural factors that influence a household’s use of microcredit services . . . 

Read More

Savings Crisis in West Bengal

In the past few weeks, the local government of West Bengal has been embroiled in a financial and political crisis that has potentially large impacts on the state’s poor and its MFIs.  After discovering that the commercial entity the Saradha Group had duped thousands of investors through a real estate Ponzi scheme, the state minister launched a full investigation of over 70 other deposit-taking entities which are grouped under the category of “chit funds.”

A chit fund is a ROSCA-meets-the-auction block style of Indian savings scheme in which subscribers pool money every month and then try to outbid each other to get the entire pot.  The difference between the lowest bid and what is left in the pool is distributed among members.  In West Bengal, chit funds are particularly important due to the high demand for products that accommodate small savings.  According to Abhijit Banerjee and Maitreesh Ghatak, West Bengal’s share of population was approximately 7.5% in 2011, its state domestic product was 6.7% of India’s GDP, but its share of bank deposits was 22%.  Many of the state’s poor cannot afford to open a bank account and those who can face plummeting interest rates.  Chit funds can offer an alternative to traditional savings and credit lines for the unbanked . . . 

Read More

Impact Evaluation of Compartamos Released

The long-awaited impact study of Compartamos, led by Manuela Angelucci of the University of Michigan and Dean Karlan and Johnathan Zinman of IPA, has finally been published. The research team used a randomized trial to test the impact of loans offered at 110% APR by Compartamos, the largest microlender in Mexico. After three years of data collection on a variety of factors, the results were generally positive with no evidence that the loans caused harm or significant negative effects.  Researchers found that loan recipients grew their business revenues and expenses, were happier, more trusting, had greater household decision power, and were better able to manage liquidity and risk.  However, there was little evidence that loans had an impact on building wealth like household income, business profits, or consumption.

One of the more interesting conclusions from the paper is as follows . . . 

Read More

Reliability of Self-Reported Data - Diaries and Alternative Methodologies

In last week’s blog post, I suggested that self-reported data should be supplemented with objective sources of information from independent third-party entities. Sometimes, however, independent data sources simply aren’t available and researchers have no choice but to base their analysis on self-reported data. Under these circumstances, some data collection methodologies might be more useful than others in ensuring that self-reported data are reliable. In this post, I discuss several studies of the potential of the diaries methodology and alternative strategies to capture accurate self-reported data.

Klaus Deininger, Calogero Carletto, Sara Savastano and James Muwonge examine the effect of personal diaries on the quality of self-reported agricultural data in their study, “Can Diaries Help in Improving Agricultural Production Statistics? Evidence from Uganda.” In Uganda, a large part of crop output consists of continually harvested crops such as cassava and banana. Since these crops are harvested over long periods of time, farmers who are asked to report harvest data may have trouble recalling events that happened several months earlier . . . 

Read More

Wagner’s Jonathan Morduch on Reimagining Banking for Half the World’s Adults

Half of the adults in the world are “unbanked” -- about 2.5 billion people. That’s the starting point of a new book, Banking the World: Empirical Foundations of Financial Inclusion, published by the MIT Press.

To reach those 2.5 billion people, NYU Wagner professor Jonathan Morduch argues that we need to think about banking in radically different ways. Promising solutions involve using new technologies like mobile phones, as well as re-imagined ideas like self-governing village-based saving groups. Understanding those possibilities is a focus of the The Financial Access Initiative, the NYU center Morduch founded with colleagues at Yale and Harvard. Morduch co-edited Banking the World . . . 

Read More

Reliability of Self-Reported Data: Deliberate Misreporting

Program evaluations and policy proposals are only as good as the data upon which they are based. Although we all know this to be true, discussions about the reliability of data, especially self-reported data, have only recently emerged in the field of development economics. The other week, I highlighted two papers from the Journal of Development Economics’ Symposium on Measurement and Survey Design which discussed how recall bias might undermine the reliability of self-reported data. Even when recall bias is not at play though, self-reported data might be threatened by respondents’ desire to misreport their activities so as to portray their behaviors in a more positive light.

Sarah Baird and Berk Özler explore this phenomenon as it relates to education in their study, “Examining the Reliability of Self-Reported Data on School Participation.” Many Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs are evaluated based on self-reported data about school enrollment and attendance rates. However, the desire to give socially desirable answers or the belief that program funding is linked to evaluation results might lead survey participants to over-report their level of school participation. Baird and Özler test the extent to which self-reported data of school enrollment rates can be considered reliable in CCT evaluations of this nature . . . 

Read More

Payments, Cash and Geographic & Economic Mobility

Right now there is a lot of talk about allowing more geographic mobility to enable more economic mobility--in other words, easing immigration restrictions. There is powerful evidence that enabling more migration (internal and external) would be a powerful tool to fight global poverty.

But there is a different kind of geographic and economic mobility that is worth thinking about--the geographic and economic immobility of cash. 

A just-for-fun project to track the movement of specific dollar bills as they move from place to place and person to person has yielded very interesting data on this issue in the United States. Back in 1998 the Where's George project started encouraging people to log the geographic (by zip code) location of their cash before spending it . . . 

Read More

A Must Read from Chris Dunford on Research-Practitioner Relationships

A regular theme in our writing is about the need for the microfinance industry to learn from and adapt to the needs of poor households. A few weeks ago, a new paper appeared based on an interesting attempt to test whether MFIs are interested in generating and using rigorous evidence. The researchers sent emails to 1,419 MFIs inquiring about their interest in "a partnership to randomly evaluate their programs." There were three different emails sent however: 1) a neutral email, 2) an email that emphasized positive findings from other studies of microfinance, and 3) an email that emphasized "null" findings from other studies of microfinance. 

Unsurprisingly, the positive emails had double the response rate of the negative emails. The authors interpret this finding as evidence of confirmation bias among MFIs--they are only intereted in good news that backs up their existing beliefs, and less interested in learning how to improve . . . 

Read More

"How Microfinance Really Works" - Jonathan Morduch in Milken Review

It's an important moment for the microfinance movement. At a time when real progress has been made in making financial services available to the poor, questions abound about the effectiveness of microfinance as a way of helping people escape from poverty. The priveleged position microfinance has enjoyed among poverty interventions and social investment is eroding. Charting the right path forward for microfinance--and effective investments in reducing poverty--requires a closer look at how microfinance really has worked . . . 

Read More

What is the Impact of Muhammad Yunus?

Muhammad Yunus spoke to an overflowing crowd at NYU on April 15, an event jointly sponsored by the Wagner School of Public Service, Stern School of Business, and Financial Access Initiative.

Professor Yunus is known for fighting to improve the lives of millions of poor families around the world, the quest that was celebrated by the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize. These days there is a lot of talk about the impact of microcredit. But here was an opportunity to ask: what is the impact of Yunus? Given where we were, more specifically, how has Yunus changed the way we--economists, academics, policy makers and influencers--think about problems?

Read More

Yunus, Entrepreneurs, and Employees

We had the good fortune to host, with NYU Wagner and NYU Stern, a talk by Muhammad Yunus today at FAI. If you couldn't join us in the room or via the livestream, you can read the tweetstream from the talk by searching Twitter for #FAIYunus, and soon we'll post video of the event. 

In the meantime, I wanted to offer some quick thoughts about one of the main topics that Professor Yunus addressed: entrepreneurship. During his talk, Yunus mentioned his advice to the children of Grameen Bank borrowers who have completed school: don't be a job seeker, be a job maker. In other words, be an entrepreneur. During the question and answer session, a member of the audience asked Yunus, "[You] assume everyone is inherently entrepreneurial. What about people who are not?" Yunus' response was that people who are not entrepreneurial have simply not been given a chance to discover and develop that side of themselves . . . 

Read More