Week of February 27, 2017

Money ain't Learnin' and the New Redlining

1. Mobile Money: The GSMA published it's annual mobile money "state of the industry" report, except that this time it's a review of the 2006-2016. Here's a summary (I know which one I would click on). As you'd expect, the GSMA heavily touts some impressive statistics on growth and usage. And I suppose you can't be surprised at the sometimes more than implied leaps from outputs to outcomes. But the more I look at things like this, the more I'm reminded of Lant Pritchett's book The Rebirth of Education: Schooling Ain't Learning and the history of using school enrollment as a very bad proxy for the outcome that everyone actually cares about, learning. Or to use a closer to the finance industry analogy, was there anyone tracking the spread of ATMs and debit cards and getting excited about how much it was going to help the poor?

2. The New Redlining: Fisman, Paravisini, and Vig have a new paper (and a summary) in AER on the effect of loan officer "cultural proximity" with borrowers in India. Loan officers who share religion, ethnicity and other traits with a borrower provide larger loans on better terms, and borrowers have higher repayment rates, meaning the loans are more profitable for the bank. The proposed mechanism is reduced "information frictions" in the lending process. It's a more subtle form of redlining--a systematic way that banks denied credit to minority communities in the United States. Fisman et. al. suggest hiring and promoting minority loan officers as the obvious way to combat the discrimination they document (that's a version of "immigrant" banks that you can still find in places like New York and San Francisco). It's also part of the reason that algorithmic approaches to credit, like this effort to use exam scores as a proxy for student lending in Kenya--remain appealing: you can simply skip past the bias inherent in human-to-human interactions! If only. The long battle against algorithmic redlining is only just beginning and will be much harder to win as long as we succumb to the fiction that algorithms fix bias. I wonder which socioeconomic class the people doing better on exams come from?  

3. Governance and Social Investment: If you pay attention to finance generally and tech in particular, you've surely come across stories about SnapChat's IPO--it's the first time in history that an IPO sold shares with no voting rights. That's right, buying a share of the company entitles you to nothing, not even a symbolic say in how the company is governed (such as at Facebook). Some of called this an absence of governance, but as Matt Levine at Bloomberg (citing John Plender) writes, its actually a shift of governance from shareholders to entrepreneurs (you'll have to scroll down) that is a logical consequence of an environment where capital is plentiful and the specialized labor of entrepreneurs is scarce. Which brings us to social investment. I'd argue that the specialized labor of social entrepreneurs who can build sustainable businesses with high levels of impact is even more scarce. And yet, social investors seem to still be able to, or at least want to, exert outsize control of firms they invest in. The Snap IPO suggests that may change. Why should a social entrepreneur seek social investment when regular old investors seemingly are willing to write blank checks?

4. Investment and Inequality: Most investment isn't social investment or even in tech (though sometimes it seems so). It also turns out that investment in the United States isn't from most people. Well, just barely most people. Only 52% of American adults owned any stocks in 2016, tied for the lowest figure since measurement began in 1998. But most of those people don't own very much stock at all--the top 20% of Americans own 92% of the stock held. In other words, while the stock markets are hitting record highs, that doesn't matter at all for most American households. 


5. Jobs: What does matter for most American households is the quality of jobs available to them. Here's Eduardo Porter on one of the reasons that even the jobs that are available are not nearly as stable, nor do they offer the same benefits, as they did before: outsourcing. No, not to other countries, just to other firms. In many large firms, much of the entry-level jobs are outsourced to specialty firms: receptionists, maintenance, food service and security. These jobs are routinely lower paying and offer fewer benefits than when an employee works directly for a firm--norms of fairness in wages no longer apply.

Bonus Updates: So maybe the next financial crisis isn't auto loans, empty retirement accounts or inflated valuations for tech companies with limited external governance, but pet leases? You have to click on a link that leads to, "Also this cat is ruining my credit score."

An amazing 1953 "explainer" about stock market investing narrated by Edward R. Murrow. The link is to a segment that talks about whether broad ownership of stock is a good or bad thing (see Item 4 above). Hattip to Morgan Housel.

An amazing 1953 "explainer" about stock market investing narrated by Edward R. Murrow. The link is to a segment that talks about whether broad ownership of stock is a good or bad thing (see Item 4 above). Hattip to Morgan Housel.

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